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The Monte Carlo fallacy and Betting

The Monte Carlo fallacy and Betting
We will explain the effects of the Monte Carlo fallacy on betting.
by Academia   |   comments 0

The psychological side is one of the most important factors in deciding a bettor's ability to succeed. The way in which a person deals with reasoning and emotionally when he is about to make the decision on a bet is a valid way to analyze whether he has the capacity to continue in that field. Our brain often tends to fall into certain statistical pitfalls that we insist on believing. Therefore, today we will talk about this subject, more specifically about the Monte Carlo Fallacy, or the Gambler's Fallacy, as it is also known.

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We can define fallacy as a process of thought that, even if it seems true, and that makes us believe, is fundamentally wrong or mistaken, leading us to losses that are often immeasurable. However, it is what's there's brainmost in betting, dear bettor, and we are here not to alert you, but to show some basic and logical points that our reasoning does not allow us to evaluate in decision making.

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Let's go for an easy-to-understand example: heads or tails, 50% chance for each side. After the first five rounds, the result was the same, say Tails. You think: "it is not possible, at some point it will have to leave Heads, and it will be now". You play and lose again. Our brain falls into this fallacy of not being able to believe a result that, even though it seems unlikely, is actually the same in each round: 50% chance for each side. It does not matter if you have played five or fifteen times, in the same way that the previous results do not matter, even if they were for the same side.
Learn, in games where the results are statistically independent for each round, you cannot fall into this trap that your intuition makes you believe. In Casino games this is common, such as roulette results, dice roll, cards received at each start of a blackjack round, etc. In fact, the name Monte Carlo was given by an experience that took place inside a Casino, in a roulette game, where the color black fell 26 times in a row. The unbelieving gamblers bet big on the red with each new round, because for them it was almost a logical question that this would happen on the next play. Wrong, and many lost all their money. They did not trust mathematical randomness, the same thing that at some point dropped the color red again.
In football this happens, and penalty kicks are a common case to prove what we are talking about the player's fallacy. After repeated charges from a team in the same corner, the opposing goalkeeper automatically inclines to fall to the other side, because in his conception it is impossible to occur that sequence until the end. It serves the player too, if the goalkeeper is falling to the same side. This has been proven by studies, showing that our emotional causes us to be influenced by issues like these.
But how can we bring that to sports betting? Of course, in sports this changes a little bit, as in a soccer match, where the win of the home team, the visitor, or a tie can occur, in addition to the various factors that we have to measure, such as line-up, motivation, climatic factors, etc. It is not statistically independent as shown in the examples, but we can learn many things to avoid falling into the error of the gambler's fallacy.
One of them is to be realistic and always cherish this rationality. We cannot allow emotions to affect us, or a reasoning taken by feelings and based on methods without any mathematical basis to sound true. Following this line, we advise you to always put discipline and adopt methods. And after a base of studies, you feel positive results, do not let some losses and reds along the way take away your confidence. Nobody will win forever, nor will the defeat or negative result be eternal.
Finally, in the betting world you win and evolve in the long run, so be patient and persistent, don't let the gambler's fallacy affect your reasoning to the point of making you lose everything. Having good strategies, analysis, studies at your side, help you to walk a path where the gains are measured by more precise methods, than by the famous Monte Carlo Fallacy.

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